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As can be seen, the real option value can be derived directly from the fuzzy NPV, without simulation.
But what is totally different is that the Datar—Mathews method is based on probability theory and as such has a very different foundation from the pay-off method that is based on possibility theory: the way that the two models treat uncertainty is fundamentally different.
Use of the method[ edit ] The pay-off method for real option valuation is very easy to use compared to the other real option valuation methods and it can be used with the most commonly used spreadsheet software without any add-ins.
The method is useful in analyses for decision making regarding investments that have an uncertain future, and especially so if the underlying data is in the form of cash-flow scenarios.
The method is less useful if optimal timing is the objective.
The method is flexible and accommodates easily both one-stage investments and multi-stage investments compound real options. The method has been taken into use in some large international industrial companies for the valuation of research and development projects and portfolios.
The use of the pay-off method is lately taught within the larger framework of real options, for example at the Lappeenranta University of Technology and at the Tampere University of Technology in Finland. Journal of Applied Mathematics and Decision Sciences. Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 19 2 : 95— On weighted possibilistic utilizarea opțiunilor reale and variance of fuzzy numbers.
Fuzzy Sets and Systems, —